Lowest variable coverage 70%
Illustrative specimen
Material limitation
| 5 years | 10 years | |
|---|---|---|
| Current share price | €84.20 | €84.20 |
| Expected price | €139.39 | €195.39 |
| Capital appreciation | €55.19 | €111.19 |
| Net expected dividends | €10.77 | €25.87 |
| Total return | 78.3% | 162.8% |
| Annualized total return | 12.3% | 10.1% |
Forecast FY2030 · valuation 2031
Forecast FY2035 · valuation 2036
The holding period used for annualization and the dividend window are configuration pending a client decision.
| Subvariable | Base | Effective | Estimate | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical CAGR — full period Ten-year revenue CAGR from filed annual reports.
| 15% | 18.8% (changed from 15%) | 5.1% | 0.96 pp |
| Historical CAGR — last 3 years Three-year revenue CAGR from filed annual reports.
| 15% | 18.8% (changed from 15%) | 6.6% | 1.24 pp |
| Analyst estimates No licensed consensus source covers this listing. Weight redistributed; coverage reduced. | 20% | 0% (changed from 20%) | — | — |
| TAM growth Addressable market growth from two independent industry reports.
| 20% | 25% (changed from 20%) | 6.8% | 1.70 pp |
| Market share / competitive position Share gains in the two largest segments over five years.
| 20% | 25% (changed from 20%) | 7.4% | 1.85 pp |
| Balance sheet strength Net cash supports organic investment without dilution.
| 10% | 12.5% (changed from 10%) | 6.0% | 0.75 pp |
Calibration fallback. The weight proposal failed validation twice; weights were redistributed proportionally.
| Subvariable | Base | Effective | Estimate | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical average — full period Ten-year average net margin.
| 10% | 11.1% (changed from 10%) | 11.4% | 1.27 pp |
| Historical average — last 3 years Three-year average net margin.
| 10% | 11.1% (changed from 10%) | 12.6% | 1.40 pp |
| Analyst estimates No licensed consensus source covers this listing. Weight redistributed; coverage reduced. | 10% | 0% (changed from 10%) | — | — |
| Industry average Median of six listed peers, latest fiscal year.
| 15% | 16.7% (changed from 15%) | 12.1% | 2.02 pp |
| Operating leverage Fixed-cost base against the revenue forecast.
| 25% | 27.8% (changed from 25%) | 14.0% | 3.89 pp |
| Net debt / financial cost trend Net cash; financing costs negligible.
| 7.5% | 8.3% (changed from 7.5%) | 13.0% | 1.08 pp |
| Interest rate forecast Rate path has little effect at net cash.
| 7.5% | 8.3% (changed from 7.5%) | 13.0% | 1.08 pp |
| Taxation Effective tax rate stable at 24%.
| 7.5% | 8.3% (changed from 7.5%) | 12.8% | 1.07 pp |
| Minority interests No material minority interests.
| 7.5% | 8.3% (changed from 7.5%) | 13.1% | 1.09 pp |
| Subvariable | Base | Effective | Estimate | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical average P/E Median P/E over ten years, loss years excluded.
| 25% | 35.7% (changed from 25%) | 18.4 | 6.57 |
| Industry average P/E Median forward P/E of the peer set.
| 25% | 35.7% (changed from 25%) | 17.2 | 6.14 |
| Relevant market index P/E Relevant market index P/E.
| 20% | 28.6% (changed from 20%) | 15.6 | 4.46 |
| Forecast EPS CAGR The EPS-CAGR-to-P/E conversion awaits a methodology decision (V2-01); not applied. | 30% | 0% (changed from 30%) | — | — |
| Subvariable | Base | Effective | Estimate | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical share count evolution Ten-year share-count CAGR.
| 10% | 10% | −0.6% | −0.06 pp |
| Last 5 years share count evolution Five-year share-count CAGR.
| 10% | 10% | −0.9% | −0.09 pp |
| Shareholder structure Founding family holds 31%; no planned sales.
| 10% | 10% | −0.5% | −0.05 pp |
| Net Debt / EBITDA Net cash leaves room for buybacks.
| 15% | 15% | −0.8% | −0.12 pp |
| Share repurchase programs Authorised programme of 2% of shares over two years.
| 20% | 20% | −1.2% | −0.24 pp |
| Stock-based compensation Plans dilute ~0.3% a year.
| 20% | 20% | 0.3% | 0.06 pp |
| Dividends Payout leaves limited room for extra buybacks.
| 10% | 10% | −0.4% | −0.04 pp |
| Convertible debt No convertible instruments outstanding.
| 5% | 5% | 0.0% | 0.00 pp |
| Year | Revenue |
|---|---|
| 2015 | €4,210M |
| 2016 | €4,390M |
| 2017 | €4,655M |
| 2018 | €4,870M |
| 2019 | €4,620M |
| 2020 | €5,080M |
| 2021 | €5,710M |
| 2022 | €6,040M |
| 2023 | €6,325M |
| 2024 | €6,610M |
| 2025 | €6,905M |
| 2026forecast | €7,353M |
| 2027forecast | €7,831M |
| 2028forecast | €8,340M |
| 2029forecast | €8,881M |
| 2030forecast | €9,458M |
| 2031forecast | €10,072M |
| 2032forecast | €10,726M |
| 2033forecast | €11,423M |
| 2034forecast | €12,164M |
| 2035forecast | €12,954M |
| Year | Net margin |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 10.2% |
| 2016 | 10.8% |
| 2017 | 11.5% |
| 2018 | 11.9% |
| 2019 | 9.4% |
| 2020 | 10.1% |
| 2021 | 12.3% |
| 2022 | 12.8% |
| 2023 | 12.1% |
| 2024 | 12.6% |
| 2025 | 13.0% |
| 2026forecast | 13.0% |
| 2027forecast | 13.0% |
| 2028forecast | 13.0% |
| 2029forecast | 13.0% |
| 2030forecast | 13.0% |
| 2031forecast | 12.9% |
| 2032forecast | 12.9% |
| 2033forecast | 12.9% |
| 2034forecast | 12.9% |
| 2035forecast | 12.9% |
| Year | EPS | Shares (M) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | €2.60 | 165 |
| 2016 | €2.89 | 164 |
| 2017 | €3.28 | 163 |
| 2018 | €3.58 | 162 |
| 2019 | €2.68 | 162 |
| 2020 | €3.19 | 161 |
| 2021 | €4.39 | 160 |
| 2022 | €4.89 | 158 |
| 2023 | €4.88 | 157 |
| 2024 | €5.34 | 156 |
| 2025 | €5.79 | 155 |
| 2026forecast | €6.20 | 154 |
| 2027forecast | €6.63 | 153 |
| 2028forecast | €7.09 | 153 |
| 2029forecast | €7.59 | 152 |
| 2030forecast | €8.12 | 151 |
| 2031forecast | €8.69 | 150 |
| 2032forecast | €9.29 | 149 |
| 2033forecast | €9.94 | 148 |
| 2034forecast | €10.64 | 148 |
| 2035forecast | €11.38 | 147 |
| Share price | |
|---|---|
| Now | €84.20 |
| 2031forecast | €139.39 |
| 2036forecast | €195.39 |
| Year | Gross DPS | Net DPS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | €2.60 | €1.87 |
| 2027 | €2.78 | €2.00 |
| 2028 | €2.98 | €2.14 |
| 2029 | €3.19 | €2.29 |
| 2030 | €3.41 | €2.45 |
| 2031 | €3.65 | €2.63 |
| 2032 | €3.90 | €2.81 |
| 2033 | €4.18 | €3.01 |
| 2034 | €4.47 | €3.22 |
| 2035 | €4.78 | €3.44 |
| FY2030 | FY2035 | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €9,458M | €12,954M |
| Net margin | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Net income | €1,225M | €1,671M |
| Shares (M) | 150.9 | 146.8 |
| EPS | €8.12 | €11.38 |
| Future P/E | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| Expected price | €139.39 | €195.39 |
| Market cap | €21,028M | €28,689M |
Price = EPS × P/E = market cap ÷ shares. Revenue → net margin → net income → shares → EPS → P/E → price.
Illustrative specimen text. The narrative interprets the completed result; it never changes a number, weight or classification.
Methodology borja-v2 Worker specimen Model specimen Prompt specimen Calibration specimen Data as of Sep 19, 2026
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